The Credit Challenge.

Mortgage Tips Gabriel Da Silva 23 Mar

For most people, credit score isn’t something you spend much time thinking about. Especially if you are someone who is making good money and paying all your bills on time. When you are in that boat, it feels pretty good! But, when you miss a payment or you struggle to pay all those credit cards, lines of credit and even your mortgage, it can feel like a sinking ship.

This is especially true if you’re credit challenged, but are looking to get into the housing market. Improving your credit is the best first step to getting a lender to give you a chance and fortunately, it is very doable!

why does credit score matter?
The reason your credit score is so important is because it tells lenders the basic story surrounding your credit. It essentially indicates whether or not you are a “good investment” by relaying how long you’ve had credit, your ability to pay back that credit and how much you currently owe. Your credit score is affected by how much debt you’re carrying in relation to limits, how many cards or tradelines you have and your history of repayment.

If you are considering getting your first mortgage, keep in mind that a credit score above 680 puts you in a good position to get financing, while a score below that will make it tough and improvement is needed.

CREDIT REPORTS
To ensure your credit score remains in good form, it is important to take a hard look at your credit report and review your credit score for any old or incorrect information. If you find any errors, contact Equifax to have them corrected or removed. Another big factor includes paying off any collections (such as parking tickets or overdue bills).

CONSIDER THE 2-2-2 RULE
If you’re a young person and new to the world of credit, consider the 2-2-2 rule to help build up your credit. Lenders typically like to see 2 forms of revolving credit (i.e. credit cards) with a limit of no less than $2,000 and a clean history of payment for 2 years.

It is important to note, a great credit score means keeping a balance on all those cards at any given time, below 30 percent of the overall limit. For a card with a limit of $2,000, this means having no more than $600 of it in use. It is also a good idea to check if your credit card requires an annual fee and make sure you are paying that off too.

If you’ve been advised to get a couple credit cards but have locked them in a vault where only a sorcerer’s spell can access them, you’re going down the wrong path. The goal is not just to have credit but to show potential lenders that you know how to use it responsibly!

rock bottom credit
When things get really bad, there is a tendency for clients to consider declaring bankruptcy or a consumer proposal. Bankruptcy is a legal process where an individual or entity can seek relief from some or all of their debts when unable to repay them. A consumer proposal is a formal, legally binding process to pay creditors a percentage of what is owed to them.

The truth is, it is best to avoid these two options. Instead, there are companies out there that will perform the same function with regards to negotiating your debts – but it won’t impact your credit or carry the stigma of bankruptcy or a consumer proposal.

CONSIDER REFINANCING
If you already own a home and have some equity, but you are still drowning in credit debt, consider refinancing your mortgage. While you might not get the same great rate you have now, or might get dinged for breaking your mortgage early, using the equity in your home can be a great way to get rid of high-interest credit card payments and consolidate debt to keep more money in your pocket at the end of the day.

keeping your score in-tact
Once you have your credit score where you want it, it is important to maintain that score. You can do this by ensuring you never use more than 30% of your available credit and that you pay your bills each month, and on time. Even if you can only pay the minimum amount due, it is important to be making those payments and recognizing the requirements.

Inflation Pressures Accelerating

Latest News Gabriel Da Silva 21 Mar

StatsCanada today reported that consumer prices rose 5.7% year-over-year in February, up again from the prior month’s 5.1% rise. This was the largest gain since August 1991 (+6.0%).

This was no surprise, as the Ukraine War has stepped up inflation pressure worldwide. The US CPI rose a whopping 7.9% last month (see chart below).
Price increases were broad-based in February, pinching the pocketbooks of Canadians. Consumers paid higher prices for gasoline and groceries in February 2022 compared with the same month a year earlier. Shelter costs continued to trend higher, rising at the fastest year-over-year pace since August 1983.

Excluding gasoline, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.7% year over year in February, surpassing the gain in January (+4.3%) when the index increased at the fastest pace since its introduction in 1999.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 1.0% in February, the most significant increase since February 2013, following a 0.9% increase in January. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.6%.

Gasoline Prices Surge Amid Geopolitical Conflict
Canadian motorists paid 32.3% more at the pump compared with February 2021.

Monthly gasoline prices increased 6.9% amid geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, as uncertainty surrounding the global oil supply put upward pressure on prices.

Similarly, prices for fuel oil and other fuels increased 8.5% month-over-month following higher international energy prices.

Grocery Prices Shot Up Again
Prices for food purchased from stores (+7.4%) rose faster in February than in January (+6.5%). This is the most significant yearly increase since May 2009. Higher input prices and heightened transportation costs continued to contribute to inflationary pressure in February.

Price growth for meat (+11.7%), including fresh or frozen beef (+16.8%) and chicken (+10.4%), was higher year over year in February than in January (+10.1%).

Shelter Costs Rise At Fastest Pace Since 1983
In February, shelter costs rose 6.6% year over year, the fastest pace since August 1983. Higher costs for both owned accommodation (+6.2%) and rented accommodation (+4.2%) increased.

Homeowners’ replacement cost (+13.2%), which is related to the price of new homes, and other owned accommodation expenses (+14.3%), which includes commissions on the sale of real estate, remained elevated year over year. In contrast, mortgage interest cost (-6.0%) moderated the shelter index on a year-over-year basis.

According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, improved economic and demographic conditions over the past year, including youth employment recovery and resumption of international migration to Canada, supported rental demand. This, in part, contributed to higher rent (+4.2%) prices year over year in February.

Bottom Line

Inflation has exceeded the Bank of Canada’s 1%-to-3% target band for 11 consecutive months. Other central banks have already begun to hike overnight rates from their effective lower bound introduced in March 2020.

Today, the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked the overnight policy target for the first time since 2018 by 25 basis points and signalled that it expects to hike rates six times more this year.

The global geopolitical tensions and rising risk of a drawn-out conflict exacerbate inflation and supply bottlenecks, delaying a return to sub-3% inflation.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

When the Future Becomes the Present

Lifestyle Gabriel Da Silva 4 Mar

 

Thinking about retirement before it happens is just common sense. But what questions should you be asking yourself? While seeking the advice of a professional like a retirement advisor can be helpful, there are a few questions to start thinking about as you begin to plan.

Deciding early what your wants and priorities will be in your golden years will determine the steps you need to take now. Will travel be more important to you than having a house big enough for the whole family to visit? Will you want to live simply and not have several cars and a large house? Of course, wants and desires will change over the years, but having a set plan to begin with is a good idea.

What are your liabilities, income, and expenses? These will be considered when planning your retirement. You need to identify how much money you will need and where it will have to come from.

It is important to identify all possible income sources that will be available to you on the day you retire. Those could include pensions, RRSPs, savings accounts, government benefits, investment property you own, and your home. Keep in mind you don’t want to rely on the Canadian Pension Plan (CPP). The average payout is $20,000 or around $1,300, and is taxable.

If you think you’ve done everything right, life can bring surprises.

 

 

DID YOU KNOW…
About 20% of retirees are found to be still paying for mortgages, while 66% are carrying credit card debt.

COMMON FINANCIAL WOES THAT CAN PREVENT RELAXING RETIREMENT
Had to retire early due to a health issue.

A heart attack or a bad back or hip can force people into early retirement. It doesn’t even have to happen to you…it could happen to a spouse and have the same devastating effect. There are a number of health reasons that could keep someone from continuing to work. Don’t rely on disability from the government to cover all your expenses. Make sure you are paying into a RRSP or other investment from an early age so that unexpected illnesses won’t keep you from the retirement you deserve.

Still had unsecured debt.

If you are not aware of your credit card balances, you just might carry that debt into your retirement where you weren’t counting on it still being an expense. It might not have even been a frivolous vacation or an out-of-control spending habit. It’s just the longer you have credit, the more the credit companies will throw at you, so it is best to pay off your balances every month as often as you can.

Still owed on a house and/or investment properties.

Again, retirement can sneak up on you or be forced upon you. When investing in property or managing the mortgage on your primary residence, keep this in mind. A 2nd mortgage might sound fine to pay for an elaborate vacation or to fund a grandchild’s wedding, but you will have to pay it back eventually.

Spent more money before retiring or after retiring than you should have.

People get excited at the prospect of not having to go to work anymore. They see a healthy sum of money in their retirement portfolio and decide they’ve earned a little fun. New cars, expensive vacations, purchasing vacation homes, etc. all will hit your retirement money in a big way. Stick to your retirement plan so your retirement can work for you.

Dominion Lending Centres

 

Bank of Canada Starts Hiking Rates

Latest News Gabriel Da Silva 2 Mar

 

 

Bank of Canada Starts Hiking Rates, Signalling More To Come

The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised the overnight policy rate target by a quarter percentage point in a widely expected move and signalled that more hikes would be coming. This is the first rate hike since 2018. In a cautious stance, the Bank announced it was continuing the reinvestment phase, keeping its overall Government of Canada bonds holdings on its balance sheet roughly stable.

The Bank’s press release highlighted the major new source of uncertainty provided by the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia and suggested that it is a new source of substantial inflation pressure. Prices for oil, metals, wheat and other grains have skyrocketed recently. Moreover, this geopolitical distention negatively impacts confidence worldwide and adds new supply disruptions that dampen growth. “Financial market volatility has increased. The situation remains fluid, and we are following events closely.”

The Bank commented that economies have emerged from the impact of the Omicron variant more quickly than expected. Demand is robust, particularly in the US.

“Economic growth in Canada was very strong in the fourth quarter of last year at 6.7%. This is stronger than the Bank’s projection and confirms its view that economic slack has been absorbed. Both exports and imports have picked up, consistent with solid global demand. In January, Canada’s labour market recovery suffered a setback due to the Omicron variant, with temporary layoffs in service sectors and elevated employee absenteeism. However, the rebound from Omicron now appears to be well in train: household spending is proving resilient and should strengthen further with the lifting of public health restrictions. Housing market activity is more elevated, adding further pressure to house prices. Overall, first-quarter growth is now looking more solid than previously projected.”

Canadian CPI inflation has risen to 5.1%, as expected in January, well below the 7.5% level posted in the US.” Price increases have become more pervasive, and measures of core inflation have all risen. Poor harvests and higher transportation costs have pushed up food prices. The invasion of Ukraine is putting further upward pressure on prices for both energy and food-related commodities. All told, inflation is now expected to be higher in the near term than projected in January. Persistently elevated inflation increases the risk that longer-run inflation expectations could drift upwards. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to the 2% target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.”

The final paragraph of the Bank’s press release speaks with great clarity: “The policy rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument. As the economy continues to expand and inflation pressures remain elevated, the Governing Council expects interest rates will need to rise further. The Governing Council will also be considering when to end the reinvestment phase and allow its holdings of Government of Canada bonds to begin to shrink. The resulting quantitative tightening (QT) would complement the policy interest rate increases. The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate, and the start of QT, will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.”

 

 

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has made a clear statement regarding the outlook for a normalization of interest rates. We expect a series of rate hikes over the next year. Expect another 25 basis point increase following the next meeting on April 13. The increased uncertainty and volatility arising from the war in Ukraine is front of mind worldwide. Still, it will not deter central banks from tightening monetary policy to forestall an embedded rise in inflation expectations.

The Bank of Canada has postponed Quantitative Tightening, for now, a prudent move in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.

 

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca